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5

Duke Of Lorraine

3yo Gelding · 8-13 · Draw 4 · OR 77

Turffontein · Betway Mr 92 Open Handicap (3-Year-Olds) · 7f 210y

#3

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

1 win from 3 runs this year. Won 8-runner maiden (36/100) at Vaal (8f, good) 65 days ago. Makes handicap debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲3
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 2.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Vaal 18/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 13218/06C8C8 @ Turffontein 29/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 12329/06C8C8 @ Vaal 30/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 12330/07C8projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-30Vaal?1st4th−3
2026-06-29Turffontein?3rd6th−3
2026-06-18Vaal?4th7th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0629/0630/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 32/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength19%

Delivery trend -23.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/06/20264th14/126%75%+0.49
29/06/20263rd5/696%71%-0.24
30/07/20261st3/1098%100%+0.02