1
One State
3yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 7 · OR 75
Turffontein · Betway Mr 92 Open Handicap (3-Year-Olds) · 7f 210y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: -2.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Vaal | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-06 | Vaal | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-07-25 | Turffontein | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-04-19 | Turffontein | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-12-20 | Vaal | ? | 4th | 8th | −3 |
| 2025-11-29 | Turffontein | ? | 13th | 16th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 61/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength81%
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 13th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 20/12/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 19/04/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 25/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 06/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |