6
Care Forgot
5yo Mare · 9-3 · Draw 4 · OR 85
Turffontein · Betway Joburg Spring F & M Challenge (Grade 2) (Fillies And Mares) · 7f 46y
#8
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.7
Today:
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Greyville | ? | 12th | 13th | −0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Greyville | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Turffontein | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Vaal | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-03-07 | Turffontein | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Turffontein | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 3-7 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength64%
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 16th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 14/01/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 24/01/2026 | 5th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 12/02/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 07/03/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 31/03/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 90% | +0.06 |
| 10/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 58% | +0.32 |
| 26/07/2026 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 15% | -0.00 |