4
Destiny Of Fire
5yo Mare · 9-3 · Draw 12 · OR 88
Turffontein · Betway Joburg Spring F & M Challenge (Grade 2) (Fillies And Mares) · 7f 46y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▲4
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 9.7 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.0
Today:
Class gap: -3.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | Turffontein | ? | 4th | 9th | −4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Turffontein | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-04-28 | Turffontein | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Vaal | ? | 1st | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-03-07 | Turffontein | ? | 9th | 15th | −5 |
| 2025-11-09 | Turffontein | ? | 11th | 15th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 45/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength70%
Delivery trend +4.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 23/08/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 04/10/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 09/11/2025 | 11th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 07/03/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 02/04/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 28/04/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 90% | +0.37 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |