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12

Flower Island

3yo Filly · 7-13 · Draw 2 · OR 94

Turffontein · Betway Joburg Spring F & M Challenge (Grade 2) (Fillies And Mares) · 7f 46y

#2

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

4%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner. 2 wins from 3 runs this year. Latest win here in May. 9/2, 3½ lengths second of 16 to Get Up in Gr 2 at Scottsville (6f, good). Off 133 days. Up in trip. Has to be taken seriously.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▲4
Strength8%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 1.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.2
Today:
Class gap: -3.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Vaal 17/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 12717/01C8C0 @ Turffontein 10/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 5f169y Gd 13210/05C?C0 @ Scottsville 23/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 16 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 13223/05C?projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-23Scottsville?2nd2nd0
2026-05-10Turffontein?1st1st0
2026-01-17Vaal?1st10th−8

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0110/0523/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 2-4 · tight 71/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength81%

Delivery trend -6.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/01/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
10/05/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
23/05/20262nd10/382%93%+0.11