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4yo Filly · 9-6 · Draw 7 · OR 70

Turffontein · Betway Joburg Spring F & M Challenge (Grade 2) (Fillies And Mares) · 7f 46y

#7

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#7

★ Timeform

Commentary

19 lengths last of 18 to Note To Self in Gr 1 at Greyville (10.9f, good, 25/1). Off 91 days. Significantly back down in trip. First run for yard after leaving C. Spies. Plenty to find on form.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Vaal 14/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 7f101y Gd 11714/10C6C7 @ Turffontein 26/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m1f208y Gd 127C6 @ Vaal 20/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 1m1f208y GS 12620/11C6C1 @ Turffontein 29/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 15 · OR - · 7f210y GS 130C0 @ Turffontein 07/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 1327/02C?C0 @ Turffontein 07/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 1m209y GS 132 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ Turffontein 04/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m4f40y Gd 1324/04C?C0 @ Greyville 30/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR - · 1m1f208y Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ Greyville 04/07/2026 · Pos 18th of 18 · OR - · 1m2f206y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS4/07C?projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-04Greyville?18th18th+0
2026-05-30Greyville?8th8th+0
2026-04-04Turffontein?2nd2nd0
2026-03-07Turffontein?1st1st+0
2026-02-07Turffontein?1st1st0
2025-11-29Turffontein?1st1st−0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/1029/114/044/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 1-12 · tight 26/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength57%

Delivery trend -3.2% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/10/20251st8/158%100%+0.42
26/10/20251st13/891%100%+0.09
20/11/20255th11/893%50%-0.43
29/11/20251st15/261%100%+0.39
07/02/20261st20/10%100%+1.00
07/03/20261st5/493%100%+0.07
04/04/20262nd6/492%86%-0.06
30/05/20268th11/142%30%-0.12
04/07/202618th40/10%0%0.00