3

Kisshoten

6yo Mare · 9-3 · Draw 6 · OR 92

Turffontein · Betway Joburg Spring F & M Challenge (Grade 2) (Fillies And Mares) · 7f 46y

#1

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

90%

Place Prob

57%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner. Seven wins from 25 Flat runs. Latest win here in June. 20/1, bit below form 1¼ lengths second of 12 to Mocha Blend in Gr 2 at Greyville (9.9f, good) 69 days ago. Back down in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▲1
Strength41%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Vaal 02/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 1312/10C5C4 @ Turffontein 09/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 7f210y GS 132C0 @ Turffontein 16/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 13016/12C?C1 @ Turffontein 07/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 13 · OR - · 7f210y GS 132C0 @ Turffontein 04/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS4/04C?C5 @ Turffontein 19/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 7f210y GS 123C5 @ Turffontein 07/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 1157/06C5C0 @ Greyville 04/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASSC0 @ Greyville 26/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 1m1f208y Gd 12726/07C?projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-26Greyville?2nd2nd0
2026-07-04Greyville?6th6th+0
2026-06-07Turffontein?1st6th−4
2026-04-19Turffontein?3rd8th−4
2026-04-04Turffontein?4th4th+0
2026-03-07Turffontein?3rd4th−0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/107/037/0626/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 74/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +5.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/10/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
09/11/20251st14/126%100%+0.74
16/12/20258th11/486%13%-0.73
07/03/20263rd16/116%83%+0.68
04/04/20264th25/10%67%+0.67
19/04/20263rd7/491%60%-0.31
07/06/20261st14/126%100%+0.74
04/07/20266th80/10%44%+0.44
26/07/20262nd16/116%91%+0.75