7
Swiatek
5yo Mare · 9-3 · Draw 3 · OR 81
Turffontein · Betway Joburg Spring F & M Challenge (Grade 2) (Fillies And Mares) · 7f 46y
#9
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Greyville | ? | 4th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Kenilworth | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Kenilworth | ? | 5th | 6th | −0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Kenilworth | ? | 5th | 5th | −0 |
| 2026-01-31 | Kenilworth | ? | 7th | 7th | −0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Kenilworth | ? | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 5-11 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength36%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/2025 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 27/09/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 82% | -0.08 |
| 22/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 13/12/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 31/01/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 28/02/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 43% | -0.18 |
| 03/05/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.18 |
| 21/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 07/08/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |