10
Valentina Balducci
4yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 11 · OR 74
Turffontein · Betway Joburg Spring F & M Challenge (Grade 2) (Fillies And Mares) · 7f 46y
#11
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Turffontein | ? | 7th | 13th | −5 |
| 2026-06-27 | Turffontein | ? | 8th | 13th | −5 |
| 2026-01-11 | Turffontein | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Turffontein | ? | 13th | 13th | −0 |
| 2025-11-01 | Turffontein | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Turffontein | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 12-12 · tight 89/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -10.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 23/08/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 04/10/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 01/11/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 29/11/2025 | 13th | 4/1 | 79% | 14% | -0.65 |
| 11/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 27/06/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 22% | -0.57 |
| 16/07/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |