9
Warm Reception
4yo Filly · 9-2 · Draw 8 · OR 92
Turffontein · Betway Joburg Spring F & M Challenge (Grade 2) (Fillies And Mares) · 7f 46y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.7
Today:
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Greyville | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Turffontein | ? | 6th | 12th | −5 |
| 2026-05-10 | Turffontein | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-03-07 | Turffontein | ? | 7th | 8th | −0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Turffontein | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-01-11 | Turffontein | ? | 1st | 2nd | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 3-12 · tight 45/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength28%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 01/11/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 11/12/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 11/01/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 07/02/2026 | 10th | 7/1 | 63% | 31% | -0.32 |
| 07/03/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 10/05/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 04/06/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 17% | -0.68 |
| 04/07/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |