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Choisaanada

5yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 6 · OR 91

Turffontein · Betway Joburg Spring Challenge (Grade 2) · 7f 46y

#9

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

2 wins from 6 runs this year. Bit below form 10 lengths tenth of 18 to Note To Self in Gr 1 (66/1) at Greyville (10.9f, good). Off 91 days. Significantly back down in trip. Others more persuasive.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▲3
Strength31%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.9
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Turffontein 04/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR - · 7f46y Gd 1274/10C?C0 @ Turffontein 01/11/2025 · Pos 10th of 16 · OR - · 7f210y GS 122C5 @ Turffontein 29/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR - · 6f211y GS 12329/11C5C4 @ Turffontein 11/01/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 7f210y GS 132C4 @ Vaal 24/01/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 1m209y Gd 13124/01C4C5 @ Turffontein 07/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 7f210y Gd 123C5 @ Turffontein 14/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 1m209y Gd 13214/03C5C0 @ Turffontein 28/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 1m1f208y GS 128C0 @ Greyville 04/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 18 · OR - · 1m2f206y Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS4/07C?projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-04Greyville?10th10th+0
2026-04-28Turffontein?2nd2nd0
2026-03-14Turffontein?1st6th−4
2026-02-07Turffontein?1st6th−4
2026-01-24Vaal?9th13th−4
2026-01-11Turffontein?10th14th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/1011/0114/034/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 66/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength87%

Delivery trend +5.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/10/20254th12/137%77%+0.40
01/11/202510th10/382%40%-0.42
29/11/20254th2/189%63%-0.27
11/01/202610th16/116%0%-0.16
24/01/20269th14/126%11%-0.15
07/02/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
14/03/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
28/04/20262nd4/179%80%+0.01
04/07/202610th66/10%47%+0.47