14
Erik Dubois
3yo Gelding · 8-4 · Draw 9 · OR 97
Turffontein · Betway Joburg Spring Challenge (Grade 2) · 7f 46y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Scottsville | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Greyville | ? | 1st | 1st | +0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Greyville | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Greyville | ? | 6th | 7th | −0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Greyville | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Greyville | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-10 · tight 48/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength73%
Delivery trend -6.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 11/04/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 77% | +0.77 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 55% | -0.06 |
| 04/07/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 26/07/2026 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 13/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |