13
I'm A Fireball
4yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 7 · OR 104
Turffontein · Betway Joburg Spring Challenge (Grade 2) · 7f 46y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
81%
Place Prob
45%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ NO MARK
Move▲3
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.4 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.1
Today:
Class gap: -2.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Turffontein | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-06-07 | Turffontein | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-04-26 | Scottsville | ? | 13th | 17th | −4 |
| 2026-03-27 | Greyville | ? | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Scottsville | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-02-07 | Turffontein | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 3-9 · tight 66/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength58%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/12/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 03/01/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 15/01/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 07/02/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 01/03/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 27/03/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 26/04/2026 | 13th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 07/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 78% | -0.08 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |