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11

Sunset Riot

5yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 8 · OR 102

Turffontein · Betway Joburg Spring Challenge (Grade 2) · 7f 46y

#7

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner. 2 wins from 5 runs this year. Very good second of 6 in minor event (28/10) at this course (8f, good to soft). Off 167 days.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲4
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.7
Today:
Class gap: -4.3
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC4 @ Greyville 05/07/2025 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR - · 7f210y GS 1215/07C4C5 @ Turffontein 26/07/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 130C5 @ Turffontein 09/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 5f169y Gd 1329/08C5C5 @ Vaal 30/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR - · 6f211y Sft 128C5 @ Kenilworth 10/01/2026 · Pos 12th of 13 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 13210/01C5C5 @ Vaal 24/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 128C5 @ Turffontein 14/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 6f211y GS 12914/02C5C5 @ Turffontein 14/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 6f211y Gd 115C5 @ Turffontein 19/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 7f210y GS 12819/04C5projClass-projected finish: 10th of 13
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-19Turffontein?2nd7th−4
2026-03-14Turffontein?1st6th−4
2026-02-14Turffontein?1st7th−5
2026-01-24Vaal?6th11th−4
2026-01-10Kenilworth?12th17th−4
2025-09-30Vaal?6th12th−5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0730/0914/0219/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 2-11 · tight 50/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength57%

Delivery trend +3.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/07/202512th40/10%15%+0.15
26/07/20258th11/486%22%-0.63
09/08/20255th8/158%50%-0.08
30/09/20256th14/126%62%+0.35
10/01/202612th28/10%8%+0.08
24/01/20266th14/126%38%+0.11
14/02/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
14/03/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
19/04/20262nd9/488%80%-0.08