7
Texas Red
7yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 4 · OR 109
Turffontein · Betway Joburg Spring Challenge (Grade 2) · 7f 46y
#6
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#6
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARK
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.7
Today:
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Turffontein | ? | 3rd | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Turffontein | ? | 4th | 9th | −4 |
| 2026-05-23 | Scottsville | ? | 10th | 12th | −2 |
| 2026-05-10 | Turffontein | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-04-04 | Turffontein | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Turffontein | ? | 3rd | 3rd | +0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 1-12 · tight 35/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength74%
Delivery trend +1.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/12/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 27/12/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 07/02/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 07/03/2026 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 04/04/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 10/05/2026 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 23/05/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |