1
Tin Pan Alley
4yo Gelding · 9-6 · Draw 14 · OR 80
Turffontein · Betway Joburg Spring Challenge (Grade 2) · 7f 46y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength41%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 0 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Greyville | ? | 12th | 12th | +0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Greyville | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Turffontein | ? | 1st | 1st | +0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Turffontein | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-22 | Vaal | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-11-29 | Turffontein | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1350% of fieldRange 4-13 · tight 50/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength36%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 92% | +0.16 |
| 04/10/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 01/11/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 29/11/2025 | 9th | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 22/01/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 07/02/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 58% | +0.11 |
| 07/03/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 90% | -0.05 |
| 06/06/2026 | 12th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |