4
Bristol Hercules
6yo Gelding · 9-2 · Draw 9 · OR 90
Turffontein · Betway Mr 96 Handicap · 5f 212y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Turffontein | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Vaal | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Vaal | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Vaal | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Turffontein | ? | 8th | 8th | −0 |
| 2026-02-26 | Turffontein | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-9 · tight 30/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength71%
Delivery trend -0.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 13th | 40/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 17/01/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 33% | -0.57 |
| 12/02/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 26/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 12/03/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 21/05/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 18/06/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 02/07/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 25/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 91% | +0.03 |