8
Elusive Red
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 8 · OR 64
Turffontein · Betway Mr 84 Handicap · 5f 212y
#6
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Turffontein | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-08-27 | Vaal | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Vaal | ? | 4th | 4th | −0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Vaal | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-27 | Turffontein | ? | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2026-06-11 | Turffontein | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 32/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength54%
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/03/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 19/03/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 56% | -0.26 |
| 21/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 87% | +0.71 |
| 11/06/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 62% | -0.15 |
| 27/06/2026 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 11% | -0.60 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 92% | +0.06 |
| 13/08/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 63% | -0.27 |
| 27/08/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 19/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |