3
Fostinovo
7yo Gelding · 9-4 · Draw 6 · OR 73
Turffontein · Betway Mr 84 Handicap · 5f 212y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength55%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Turffontein | ? | 8th | 8th | −0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Turffontein | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Turffontein | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-11 | Greyville | 4 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-03-19 | Turffontein | ? | 2nd | 2nd | +0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Turffontein | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 4-8 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength26%
Delivery trend -7.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/12/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 92% | +0.18 |
| 03/01/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 27/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 19/02/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 19/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 11/04/2026 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 46% | -0.35 |
| 29/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 05/09/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |