4
Little Boy Blue
4yo Gelding · 9-3 · Draw 1 · OR 86
Turffontein · Betway Mr 84 Handicap · 5f 212y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
85%
Place Prob
56%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▼1
Strength68%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Turffontein | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-09-05 | Turffontein | ? | 3rd | 3rd | −0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Scottsville | 4 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-06-13 | Greyville | 4 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-05-30 | Greyville | 4 | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-04-29 | Scottsville | 4 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength69%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 15/03/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 30% | +0.04 |
| 29/03/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 70% | +0.17 |
| 29/04/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 13/06/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 45% | -0.33 |
| 28/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 71% | -0.19 |
| 12/09/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |