1
Mrs Stormiatrix
4yo Filly · 9-10 · Draw 5 · OR 57
Turffontein · Betway Mr 84 Handicap · 5f 212y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARK
Move▬
Strength40%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Vaal | ? | 6th | 6th | +0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Turffontein | ? | 5th | 5th | +0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Turffontein | ? | 1st | 1st | +0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Turffontein | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Vaal | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-24 | Vaal | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 4-8 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength4%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/2025 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 13% | -0.70 |
| 01/02/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 10/02/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 24/02/2026 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 28/03/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 30/04/2026 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 54% | -0.30 |
| 09/07/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 01/08/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |
| 10/09/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |