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19:00 · Southwell

bettingsites.co.uk Your Betting Guide Handicap (GBBPlus Race)

1m 4f 14yStandardClass 43YO plusALLWEATHERHandicap6 runners
Ordered by projected finish
2
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 84
7/4
Affettuoso silks

Cheveley Park Stud

Affettuoso

3yo Gelding · 9-9 · Draw 5

New Bay - Cabaletta (Mastercraftsman)

Ray Dawson60%1/2R Varian60%
5251
5.0Class ↓2Going 7.0

Off 3 months (gelded) before easily landing the odds in 5-runner novice at Lingfield (1½m, all-weather) 24 days ago. This unexposed son of New Bay looks to have a fair bit more to offer on handicap debut. Interesting prospect.

Class Advantage

24/10 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a24/106/12 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a6/129/06 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a9/0612/09 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above12/09 · mark par12/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength45%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 50%Dist: 1m 4f 14y · 25%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 5 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 0%24/10Pos 2 · SP 5/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 2 · SP 5/6 | Actual: 83%6/12Pos 5 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 5 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 64%9/06Pos 1 · SP 1/9 | Expected: 99%Pos 1 · SP 1/9 | Actual: 100%12/09
Projected finish1st of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
100%1-275/100
7
Value2
OR 76
5/1
Cliff Danger silks

Family Sly

Cliff Danger

3yo Gelding · 9-1 · Draw 3

Bated Breath - Eileendover (Canford Cliffs)

Rob Hornby0/1T Ellis
647914
6.0

Took a big step forward when opening his account over C&D in August on his final run for Pam Sly. Backed it up with a solid fourth of 10 back over C&D for new handler 2 weeks ago. Possibilities.

Class Advantage

26/04 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a26/0419/05 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a18/06 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a5/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above5/07 · mark par16/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above16/08 · mark par22/09 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above22/09 · mark par22/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength47%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 67%Dist: 1m 4f 14y · 33%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 6 · SP 40/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 40/1 | Actual: 29%26/04Pos 4 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 7 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 7 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 50%18/06Pos 9 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 9 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 38%Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 100%16/08Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 67%22/09
Projected finish2nd of 6
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength73%
ExpectedActualTrend
80%1-461/100
3
5
OR 77
16/1
Without Compromise silks

Paul Musson & Antony Brittain

Without Compromise

5yo Gelding · 9-8 · Draw 4

Frankel - Without You Babe (Lemon Drop Kid)

Cam Hardie70%3/22A Brittain60%
538267
4.0Going 8.0
1st Tongue Strap +2

A 3-time 1¼m winner at Newcastle late in 2025. Back from 4 months off in decent nick, seventh of 17 in handicap at Doncaster (1¼m, good to firm) last time. Not out of things with tongue tie added.

Class Advantage

1/01 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above1/01 · mark par1/0124/02 · C4 · finish vs mark above24/02 · mark par20/03 · C4 · finish vs mark above20/03 · mark par26/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above26/07 · mark par16/08 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above16/08 · mark par11/09 · C4 · finish vs mark above11/09 · mark par11/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength49%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 50%Dist: 1m 4f 14y

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 5 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 20%1/01Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 3 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 60%Pos 8 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 8 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 36%20/03Pos 2 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 75%Pos 6 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 29%16/08Pos 7 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 63%11/09
Projected finish3rd of 6
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength75%
ExpectedActualTrend
60%1-464/100
1
3
OR 87
3/1
Nochebuena silks

Miss K Rausing

Nochebuena

3yo Filly · 9-12 · Draw 1

Study Of Man - Cascanueces (Smart Strike)

H Crouch60%0/1R M Beckett60%
42129
5.0Class ↓2

Study of Man filly got off the mark in novice at Doncaster in June and advanced that form when runner-up on handicap bow at Ascot (1½m) in July. Run best ignored (hampered and lost ground early) when ninth of 10 back at Doncaster 25 days ago. Remains one to be interested in.

Class Advantage

10/12 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a10/1222/05 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a14/06 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a10/07 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above10/07 · mark par11/09 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above11/09 · mark par11/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▼1
Strength61%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 20%Dist: 1m 4f 14y · 60%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 4 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 57%10/12Pos 2 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 2 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 80%22/05Pos 1 · SP 5/6 | Expected: 96%Pos 1 · SP 5/6 | Actual: 100%14/06Pos 2 · SP 15/8 | Expected: 90%Pos 2 · SP 15/8 | Actual: 83%10/07Pos 9 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 9 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 11%11/09
Projected finish4th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength32%
ExpectedActualTrend
40%3-660/100
4
4
OR 77
12/1
Spirit Of Jura silks

R W Huggins & Partner

Spirit Of Jura

4yo Filly · 9-8 · Draw 2

Masar - Pamona (Duke Of Marmalade)

Connor Beasley60%0/1C Johnston
752536
5.0Going 8.0

A 4-time winner (at up to 13f) in 2025. Runner-up at Ripon in June but has failed to beat a rival in all 3 subsequent runs. This course scorer has plenty to prove.

Class Advantage

8/04 · C4 · finish vs mark below8/04 · mark par8/0426/04 · C4 · finish vs mark below26/04 · mark par17/06 · C4 · finish vs mark above17/06 · mark par11/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below11/07 · mark par17/07 · C4 · finish vs mark below17/07 · mark par2/09 · C4 · finish vs mark below2/09 · mark par2/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength23%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 17%Dist: 1m 4f 14y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 7 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 0%8/04Pos 5 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 5 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 20%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 80%17/06Pos 5 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 5 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 0%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 3 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 0%17/07Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 0%2/09
Projected finish5th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
20%5-683/100
5
6
OR 82
12/1
Now Maybe silks

Flagship Thoroughbreds

Now Maybe

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · Draw 6

Lucky Vega - Red Poppy (Declaration Of War)

Benoit D L Sayette60%George Baker
823625
4.0

Placed 3 times in maidens for Jessica Harrington in Ireland. Changed hands for 68,000 gns and not discredited for new yard after 12-week break when fifth of 6 in handicap at Ascot (1¼m, good to firm) 31 days ago, needing stronger gallop. Not ruled out now back up in trip.

Class Advantage

22/09 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a22/0912/11 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a25/04 · C8 · finish vs mark n/a16/05 · C9 · finish vs mark below16/05 · mark par12/06 · C8 · finish vs mark below12/06 · mark par5/09 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above5/09 · mark par5/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲3
Strength10%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Going: Standard · 17%Dist: 1m 4f 14y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 8 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 13%22/09Pos 2 · SP 85/40 | Expected: 89%Pos 2 · SP 85/40 | Actual: 92%Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 88%25/04Pos 6 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 6 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 17%Pos 2 · SP 10/11 | Expected: 95%Pos 2 · SP 10/11 | Actual: 94%12/06Pos 5 · SP 18/1 | Expected: 5%Pos 5 · SP 18/1 | Actual: 20%5/09
Projected finish6th of 6
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength57%
ExpectedActualTrend
0%1-635/100