14:40 · Thirsk

Ladies' Day Saturday 5th September - Book Now Handicap

5fGoing TBCClass 53YO plusTURFHandicap6 runners
Ordered by projected finish
2
Market FavTop Pick1
OR 729/4
Military Girl silks

Mr William Arblaster

4yo Filly · 9-8

Soldier's Call - Betsey Trotter (Camacho)

Connor Beasley4/10M Dods60%
443112
9.0Going 8.0

Completed a double in determined fashion over C&D in early-June. Only beaten 1 length in her hat-trick bid here later that month (form worked out well) and entitled to run a big race if returning from 7 weeks off in similar heart.

Class Advantage

17/10 · C5 · finish vs mark above17/10 · mark par17/1028/10 · C5 · finish vs mark above28/10 · mark par21/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above21/04 · mark par20/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above20/05 · mark par5/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above5/06 · mark par16/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above16/06 · mark par16/06projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength37%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 11/1 | Expected: 42%Pos 4 · SP 11/1 | Actual: 70%17/10Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 4 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 63%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 60%21/04Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 100%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 1 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 100%5/06Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 2 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 89%16/06
Projected finish1st of 6
EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend
Strength86%
ExpectedActualTrend
3
2
OR 6711/4
Azuinthejungle silks

D P Van Der Hoeven & D G Pryde

4yo Gelding · 9-8

Rumble Inthejungle - Kashtan (Sakhee's Secret)

Alex Jary60%2/4−3lbN Tinkler60%
473211
8.0Class ↓3

Enthusiastic sort who completed a hat-trick this time last year (only denied 4-timer by a now-useful one). Following a similar trajectory this season, recording back-to-back wins at Ayr/Beverley in July. Still well treated on pick of last season's form and may defy a 5-lb penalty/step up in grade.

Class Advantage

3/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above3/06 · mark par3/0616/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above16/06 · mark par26/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above26/06 · mark par11/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above11/07 · mark par13/07 · C6 · finish vs mark above13/07 · mark par28/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above28/07 · mark par28/07projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Class readPROGRESSIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength42%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 4 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 57%3/06Pos 7 · SP 3/1 | Expected: 84%Pos 7 · SP 3/1 | Actual: 25%Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 82%26/06Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 86%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%13/07Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 100%28/07
Projected finish2nd of 6
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength88%
ExpectedActualTrend
6
3
OR 689/2
Glory Fighter silks

Mad 4 Fun & Paul Williamson

10yo Gelding · 9-4

Kyllachy - Isola Verde (Oasis Dream)

D Nolan1/6P T Midgley
831506
4.0Class ↓3

Veteran C&D winner who responded well when getting off the mark for the year at Nottingham (5f) in April. Struggled on his last couple of starts, but he's been freshened up and should be able to get his own way in front.

Class Advantage

22/01 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below22/01 · mark par22/016/02 · C5 · finish vs mark above6/02 · mark par8/04 · C5 · finish vs mark above8/04 · mark par8/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above8/05 · mark par16/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above16/05 · mark par11/06 · C5 · finish vs mark below11/06 · mark par11/06projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength52%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 0%22/01Pos 3 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 78%Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 1 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 100%8/04Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 5 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 43%Pos 15 · SP 28/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 15 · SP 28/1 | Actual: 13%16/05Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 6 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 17%11/06
Projected finish3rd of 6
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength48%
ExpectedActualTrend
1
4
OR 7317/2
J Street silks

Nick Bradley Racing 8 & Partner

4yo Filly · 9-9

Washington Dc - Mookhlesa (Marju)

Billy Garritty1/1M & D Easterby60%
351414
6.0Class ↓3

Has won 2 of her previous 4 starts without looking entirely straightforward. Ran at least as well in defeat when ½-length fourth of 11 at Chester latest. Serious player with Billy Garritty (1-1) back aboard.

Class Advantage

21/05 · C5 · finish vs mark above21/05 · mark par21/055/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above5/06 · mark par18/06 · C5 · finish vs mark above18/06 · mark par25/06 · C6 · finish vs mark below25/06 · mark par18/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above18/07 · mark par25/07 · C5 · finish vs mark above25/07 · mark par25/07projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Class readCOMPETITIVE
BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move
Strength40%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 3 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 78%21/05Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 5 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 60%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 10/3 | Actual: 100%18/06Pos 4 · SP 13/8 | Expected: 91%Pos 4 · SP 13/8 | Actual: 25%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Expected: 86%Pos 1 · SP 11/4 | Actual: 100%18/07Pos 4 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 4 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 70%25/07
Projected finish4th of 6
SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend
Strength29%
ExpectedActualTrend
4
5
OR 7166/1
Vince L'Amour silks

Reality Partnerships X

5yo Gelding · 9-7

Invincible Army - Red Romance (Dutch Art)

D Allan60%3/23T D Easterby90%
006790
2.0Class ↓3
1st Blinkers +3Tongue strap

Badly out of sorts since winning at Ripon (off 3 lb higher) in May and hard to be confident he can capitalise on falling mark.

Class Advantage

17/05 · C3 (higher class) · finish vs mark above17/05 · mark par17/0531/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below31/05 · mark par9/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark above9/06 · mark par18/06 · C2 (higher class) · finish vs mark above18/06 · mark par6/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below6/07 · mark par25/07 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below25/07 · mark par25/07projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move2
Strength64%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 13 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 13 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 0%17/05Pos 13 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 13 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 25%Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 50%9/06Pos 7 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 9 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 0%6/07Pos 17 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 17 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 0%25/07
Projected finish5th of 6
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength0%
ExpectedActualTrend
5
6
OR 7117/2
Qila silks

Brian Ellison Racing Club

3yo Gelding · 9-4

Havana Gold - Last Frontier (Kendargent)

Ben Robinson70%0/3B Ellison70%
5420
4.0
1st Tongue Strap +2

Steadily progressed in novices before running poorly on handicap bow at Carlisle in early-June. Mark looks fair but has something to prove returning from 8 weeks off with tongue strap fitted (has previously undergone a breathing operation).

Class Advantage

8/09 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a8/0918/09 · C5 · finish vs mark n/a18/0919/05 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a19/059/06 · C4 (higher class) · finish vs mark below9/06 · mark par9/06projClass-projected finish: 4th of 6
Class readCLASS EDGE
RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move
Strength48%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 5f · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 100/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 100/1 | Actual: 67%8/09Pos 4 · SP 22/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 4 · SP 22/1 | Actual: 63%18/09Pos 2 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 80%19/05Pos 10 · SP 17/2 | Expected: 55%Pos 10 · SP 17/2 | Actual: 10%9/06
Projected finish6th of 6
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength17%
ExpectedActualTrend