4
Camelarua
4yo Filly · 9-6
Amiens · Prix Dominique Geroux Handicap · 1m 2f 205y
#7
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength37%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Dieppe | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-24 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-04-30 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Chantilly | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-03-31 | Fontainebleau | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength72%
Delivery trend -0.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 18/02/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 70% | -0.01 |
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 31/03/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 10/04/2026 | 10th | 18/1 | 5% | 25% | +0.20 |
| 22/04/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 58% | +0.11 |
| 30/04/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 58% | -0.13 |
| 24/05/2026 | 11th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 24/08/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |