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16:45 · Churchill Downs

Race 1 - Claiming

6f 110y3YO plusDIRT8 runners
Ordered by projected finish
7
Top Pick1
OR 74
5/1
Lexi's Melody silks

Starry Night Racing

Lexi's Melody

3yo Filly · 8-6

Lexitonian - Harkness (Harlan's Holiday)

Luis SaezJ Sweezey
512573
6.0Going 8.0

Class Advantage

22/05 · C9 · finish vs mark above22/05 · mark par22/0510/06 · C9 · finish vs mark above10/06 · mark par26/06 · C8 · finish vs mark above26/06 · mark par17/07 · C8 · finish vs mark below17/07 · mark par31/07 · C8 · finish vs mark below31/07 · mark par4/09 · C8 · finish vs mark below4/09 · mark par4/09projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f 110y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 5 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 56%22/05Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%Pos 2 · SP 80/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 2 · SP 80/1 | Actual: 90%26/06Pos 5 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 5 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 56%Pos 7 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 14%31/07Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 75%4/09
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +42.9%Ahead 4/4
2
4
OR 83
7/2
Mustang Lady silks

Troy Newton

Mustang Lady

6yo Mare · 8-9

Tonalist - Hundred Year Storm (War Front)

Jaime Torres0/1Troy Newton
385242
6.0Going 8.0Class ↓3

Class Advantage

9/04 · C8 · finish vs mark below9/04 · mark par9/0429/04 · C8 · finish vs mark below29/04 · mark par10/05 · C8 · finish vs mark below10/05 · mark par5/06 · C8 · finish vs mark below5/06 · mark par24/06 · C8 · finish vs mark below24/06 · mark par31/07 · C8 · finish vs mark below31/07 · mark par31/07projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f 110y · 17%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 80%9/04Pos 8 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 36%Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 5 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 43%10/05Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Expected: 71%Pos 2 · SP 11/2 | Actual: 83%Pos 4 · SP 8/1 | Expected: 58%Pos 4 · SP 8/1 | Actual: 50%24/06Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 2 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 83%31/07
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength76%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -7.5%Ahead 1/4
8
2
OR 75
8/1
She's Gotta Go silks

Arturo Perez

She's Gotta Go

4yo Filly · 8-9

Maximum Security - Beestrong (Broken Vow)

Axel ConcepcionMatt Shirer
527214
6.0

Class Advantage

15/05 · C9 · finish vs mark below15/05 · mark par15/0512/06 · C9 · finish vs mark below12/06 · mark par21/06 · C9 · finish vs mark below21/06 · mark par17/07 · C9 · finish vs mark below17/07 · mark par23/08 · C9 · finish vs mark above23/08 · mark par16/09 · C8 · finish vs mark below16/09 · mark par16/09projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 8
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f 110y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 5 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 5 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 33%15/05Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 2 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 88%Pos 7 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 7 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 40%21/06Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 2 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 80%Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Expected: 68%Pos 1 · SP 6/1 | Actual: 100%23/08Pos 4 · SP 2/1 | Expected: 89%Pos 4 · SP 2/1 | Actual: 50%16/09
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength41%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -10.1%Ahead 2/4
4
5
OR 74
8/1
Vinno Ronnie silks

Carlos Garcia-lagunas

Vinno Ronnie

3yo Filly · 8-6

Vino Rosso - Elusive Raven (Elusive Quality)

Edgar MoralesThomas Vance
736063
4.0Class ↓3

Class Advantage

16/04 · C8 · finish vs mark below16/04 · mark par16/0417/05 · C8 · finish vs mark below17/05 · mark par5/06 · C8 · finish vs mark below5/06 · mark par10/07 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below10/07 · mark par31/07 · C8 · finish vs mark below31/07 · mark par16/09 · C8 · finish vs mark below16/09 · mark par16/09projClass-projected finish: 6th of 8
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f 110y · 50%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 0%16/04Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 3 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 67%Pos 6 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 6 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 17%5/06Pos 10 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 10 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 0%Pos 6 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 6 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 17%31/07Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 67%16/09
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength50%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -3.9%Ahead 1/4
6
8
OR 83
4/1
Miss Bourbon silks

Vinlaur Racing Stables Llc

Miss Bourbon

5yo Mare · 8-9

Connect - Savasana (Scatmandu)

Mario Gutierrez60%Jordan Blair
833656
3.0Class ↓3

Class Advantage

24/08 · C8 · finish vs mark below24/08 · mark par24/0820/09 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above20/09 · mark par17/10 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below17/10 · mark par15/11 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below15/11 · mark par21/12 · C8 · finish vs mark below21/12 · mark par30/08 · C8 · finish vs mark below30/08 · mark par30/08projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength58%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f 110y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 8 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 8 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 30%24/08Pos 3 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 3 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 78%Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 3 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 50%17/10Pos 6 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 6 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 44%Pos 5 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 5 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 64%21/12Pos 6 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 6 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 44%30/08
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength91%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +7.2%Ahead 2/4
1
3
OR 77
15/1
Getting After It silks

Muddy Waters Stables Llc

Getting After It

4yo Filly · 8-9

Violence - Banshee Birdie (Birdstone)

Francisco ArrietaMichael Puhich
129883
4.0Going 8.0Class ↓2

Class Advantage

7/02 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark above7/02 · mark par7/027/03 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark above7/03 · mark par22/03 · C9 · finish vs mark below22/03 · mark par6/04 · C6 (higher class) · finish vs mark below6/04 · mark par31/07 · C8 · finish vs mark below31/07 · mark par8/09 · C8 · finish vs mark below8/09 · mark par8/09projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength36%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f 110y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 1 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 100%7/02Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Expected: 66%Pos 2 · SP 13/2 | Actual: 88%Pos 9 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 9 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 20%22/03Pos 8 · SP 20/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 8 · SP 20/1 | Actual: 13%Pos 8 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 8 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 0%31/07Pos 3 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 3 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 71%8/09
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 6-8 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength10%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +4.3%Ahead 3/4
3
Market Fav7
OR 81
2/1
Ashes And Diamonds silks

Sherman, Thomas E And Baker, Candie A

Ashes And Diamonds

4yo Filly · 8-9

Honor A. P. - Regal Passage (Violence)

Brian Jr Hernandez0/3James Baker
447367
4.0Class ↓3

Class Advantage

22/02 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark above22/02 · mark par22/0222/05 · C7 (higher class) · finish vs mark below22/05 · mark par7/06 · C7 (higher class) · finish vs mark below7/06 · mark par31/07 · C8 · finish vs mark below31/07 · mark par21/08 · C7 (higher class) · finish vs mark below21/08 · mark par10/09 · C8 · finish vs mark below10/09 · mark par10/09projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength45%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f 110y · 67%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 4 · SP 10/1 | Expected: 47%Pos 4 · SP 10/1 | Actual: 50%22/02Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Expected: 26%Pos 4 · SP 14/1 | Actual: 50%Pos 7 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 7 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 0%7/06Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 3 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 71%Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Expected: 16%Pos 6 · SP 16/1 | Actual: 29%21/08Pos 7 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 7 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 0%10/09
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength72%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -3.9%Ahead 2/4
5
6
OR 71
12/1
Click silks

Ismael Bahena

Click

3yo Filly · 8-6

Connect - My Mo (Uncle Mo)

Summer Pauly0/2Ismael Bahena
431360
4.0Going 8.0Class ↓3

Class Advantage

14/03 · C9 · finish vs mark below14/03 · mark par14/039/04 · C9 · finish vs mark below9/04 · mark par9/05 · C9 · finish vs mark below9/05 · mark par3/06 · C9 · finish vs mark below3/06 · mark par25/08 · C5 (higher class) · finish vs mark below25/08 · mark par6/09 · C7 (higher class) · finish vs mark below6/09 · mark par6/09projClass-projected finish: 7th of 8
Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength24%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 6f 110y · 83%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 7 · SP 7/2 | Expected: 82%Pos 7 · SP 7/2 | Actual: 33%14/03Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Expected: 76%Pos 4 · SP 9/2 | Actual: 73%Pos 2 · SP 4/9 | Expected: 98%Pos 2 · SP 4/9 | Actual: 75%9/05Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Expected: 74%Pos 4 · SP 5/1 | Actual: 67%Pos 6 · SP 25/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 6 · SP 25/1 | Actual: 17%25/08Pos 12 · SP 50/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 12 · SP 50/1 | Actual: 0%6/09
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength20%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -3.3%Ahead 1/4