13:12 · Epsom Downs

Betfred Derby 'Wild Card' EBF Conditions Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

1m 113yGoing TBCClass 22YO onlyTURF5 runners
Ordered by projected finish
3
Value2
OR 81
13/2
Bincimbal silks

Salhia Stud Limited

2yo Colt · 9-3

Too Darn Hot - Silk Romance (Shamardal)

Lewis Edmunds60%Harry Charlton
3411
7.0Going 9.0

Improved to make a winning start to his nursery career over 7f here last month. Looked a cut above his rivals when following up from 2 lb higher at Carlisle (1m, good to firm) last time and while this demands more, he should make a bold bid for the hat-trick.

Class Advantage

28/05 · C3 · finish vs mark n/a28/0511/07 · C3 · finish vs mark n/a11/0714/08 · C5 · finish vs mark above14/08 · mark par14/0827/08 · C4 · finish vs mark above27/08 · mark par27/08projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 3
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 113y · 75%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 9/1 | Expected: 53%Pos 3 · SP 9/1 | Actual: 50%28/05Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Expected: 61%Pos 4 · SP 15/2 | Actual: 40%11/07Pos 1 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 1 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 100%14/08Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Expected: 88%Pos 1 · SP 9/4 | Actual: 100%27/08
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +13.0%Ahead 2/4
1
3
OR 91
4/1
Sword Salute silks

Sheikh Hamdan Bin Mohammed Al Maktoum

2yo Colt · 9-5

Masar - Victory Wave (Distorted Humor)

Rowan Scott60%2/3C Johnston
31017
5.0Class ↓2Going 8.0

Masar colt who built on debut promise with victory in 8-runner maiden at Lingfield (7f) in May. Caused a 33/1 shock when making all on nursery debut at Glorious Goodwood (7f, good to firm) in July but not good enough upped markedly in grade at Woodbine (1m) earlier in the month.

Class Advantage

18/05 · C3 · finish vs mark n/a18/0530/05 · C4 · finish vs mark n/a18/06 · C1 (higher class) · finish vs mark n/a30/07 · C2 · finish vs mark above30/07 · mark par12/09 · C0 (higher class) · finish vs mark above12/09 · mark par12/09projClass-projected finish: 1st of 3
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength37%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 113y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 3 · SP 11/8 | Expected: 93%Pos 3 · SP 11/8 | Actual: 67%18/05Pos 1 · SP 11/10 | Expected: 94%Pos 1 · SP 11/10 | Actual: 100%30/05Pos 13 · SP 66/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 13 · SP 66/1 | Actual: 8%18/06Pos 1 · SP 33/1 | Expected: 0%Pos 1 · SP 33/1 | Actual: 100%30/07Pos 7 · SP 12/1 | Expected: 37%Pos 7 · SP 12/1 | Actual: 14%12/09
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +22.7%Ahead 3/4
2
Top Pick1
OR 89
3/1
Al Wathba silks

Godolphin

2yo Colt · 9-3

Wootton Bassett - Hidden Breeze (Dark Angel)

Billy Loughnane80%C Appleby60%
2214
6.0Going 8.0

Scopey €900,000 Wootton Bassett colt who shaped well when behind the subsequent Acomb winner Haffner on debut. Turned over at 2/11 next start, but made no mistake at Kempton (1m) last month. However, proved too free when fourth of 6 on nursery debut at Doncaster (1m, good) earlier in the month.

Class Advantage

11/07 · C3 · finish vs mark n/a11/079/08 · C3 · finish vs mark n/a9/0826/08 · C3 · finish vs mark above26/08 · mark par26/0810/09 · C3 · finish vs mark above10/09 · mark par10/09projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 3
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength16%
Mark par Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 113y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 2 · SP 4/1 | Expected: 79%Pos 2 · SP 4/1 | Actual: 83%11/07Pos 2 · SP 2/11 | Expected: 99%Pos 2 · SP 2/11 | Actual: 50%9/08Pos 1 · SP 4/7 | Expected: 97%Pos 1 · SP 4/7 | Actual: 100%26/08Pos 4 · SP 7/4 | Expected: 91%Pos 4 · SP 7/4 | Actual: 40%10/09
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength33%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery -23.1%Ahead 2/4
5
Market Fav4
9/4
Rose Moon silks

Mr G C Myddelton & Partner

2yo Colt · 9-3

Sea The Moon - Rosenart (Areion)

Rossa Ryan70%1/1R M Beckett60%
1
10.0

€95,000 yearling, Sea The Moon colt who knew his job and looked potentially useful in scoring with something in hand in 9-runner novice at Salisbury (1m, good to soft) on debut earlier in the month. Will stay further in time and he looks an exciting prospect.

Class Advantage

3/09 · C3 · finish vs mark n/a3/09
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 113y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 5/2 | Expected: 87%Pos 1 · SP 5/2 | Actual: 100%3/09
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-4 · 50%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength95%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +13.2%Ahead 1/1
4
5
7/2
Quite Cheeky silks

Mr T J W Bridge

2yo Colt · 9-3

Teofilo - Examinee (Monsun)

Cieren Fallon70%1/1W J Haggas
1
10.0

70,000 gns yearling, Teofilo colt who overcame inexperience to make a winning debut in 10-runner novice at this course (7f, good) earlier in the month, the trio completing the frame all having had a run. Upped in trip and seems sure to improve on that initial effort.

Class Advantage

10/09 · C3 · finish vs mark n/a10/09
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%
Finish Dot = grade
Dist: 1m 113y · 100%

Previous Market Position

050100todayPos 1 · SP 7/1 | Expected: 63%Pos 1 · SP 7/1 | Actual: 100%10/09
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 1-4 · 50%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
ExpectedActualTrend
Delivery +36.8%Ahead 1/1