11
Clair De Lune
6yo Mare · 8-9
Amiens · Prix Dominique Geroux Handicap · 1m 2f 205y
#9
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 10.1 /10 (raw 7.4)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Dieppe | 4 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 14th | 13th | +1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Dieppe | 4 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Lyon-Parilly | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 9-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength2%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2025 | 9th | 18/1 | 5% | 27% | +0.22 |
| 09/10/2025 | 14th | 25/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 07/11/2025 | 9th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 08/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 30/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 08/07/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 18/07/2026 | 14th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 31/08/2026 | 14th | 80/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 09/09/2026 | 13th | 18/1 | 5% | 8% | +0.02 |