Lempira
6yo Gelding · 9-6
Amiens · Prix Dominique Geroux Handicap · 1m 2f 205y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 7.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Le Lion D'angers | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Le Lion D'angers | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Le Lion D'angers | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Dieppe | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 15th | 14th | +1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Nantes | 3 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/2026 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 58% | +0.58 |
| 24/05/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 04/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 16/06/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 03/07/2026 | 15th | 18/1 | 5% | 7% | +0.01 |
| 18/07/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 02/08/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 20/08/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 04/09/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 53% | +0.38 |