2
Arabian Fever
4yo Colt · 9-4
Amiens · Prix Florent Geroux Claiming Stakes · 1m 44y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Dieppe | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-28 | Saint-Malo | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Vichy | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-21 | Chateaubriant | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-26 | Aix-Les-Bains | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-02 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength32%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 28/10/2025 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 11% | -0.42 |
| 09/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 02/06/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 42% | +0.36 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 8/11 | 96% | 67% | -0.30 |
| 21/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 30/07/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 73% | +0.02 |
| 09/09/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |