7
Iffrocta Fal
4yo Filly · 8-8
Amiens · Prix Florent Geroux Claiming Stakes · 1m 44y
#2
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
31%
Place Prob
35%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength28%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-17 | Dieppe | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-04 | Chantilly | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-07-26 | Le Touquet | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Dieppe | 3 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Chantilly | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength37%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/12/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 05/06/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 26/06/2026 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 18/07/2026 | 12th | 10/1 | 47% | 15% | -0.32 |
| 26/07/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 07/08/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 90% | +0.74 |
| 17/09/2026 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |