IvyArcIvyArc
6

Loria

5yo Filly · 9-1

Amiens · Prix Florent Geroux Claiming Stakes · 1m 44y

#5

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength28%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC0 @ Saint-Malo 29/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 1m208y Sft 13229/08C?C5 @ Chantilly 02/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 7f209y GS 120C5 @ Clairefontaine 24/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 1m208y Hvy 12424/10C5C5 @ Le Croise-Laroche 15/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR - · 1m208y Sft 1223 @ Chantilly 02/04/2026 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR - · 7f209y Hvy 124 · HIGHER CLASS2/0433 @ ParisLongchamp 07/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 7f209y Hvy 120 · HIGHER CLASS3 @ Compiegne 20/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 15 · OR - · 7f209y Hvy 139 · HIGHER CLASS20/053C5 @ Deauville 27/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 7f100y Std 1424 @ Dieppe 09/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 1m208y Sft 1229/074projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-09Dieppe44th4th0
2026-06-27Deauville?5th6th−1
2026-05-20Compiegne33rd2nd+1
2026-05-07ParisLongchamp33rd2nd+1
2026-04-02Chantilly38th7th+1
2025-11-15Le Croise-Laroche?7th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0815/1120/059/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength75%

Delivery trend -3.2% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/08/20259th12/137%27%-0.10
02/10/20256th28/10%29%+0.29
24/10/20254th8/158%50%-0.08
15/11/20257th25/10%0%0.00
02/04/20268th16/116%46%+0.30
07/05/20263rd22/10%78%+0.78
20/05/20263rd11/271%86%+0.15
27/06/20265th4/179%33%-0.46
09/07/20264th2/189%57%-0.32