Clyde's Got A Gun
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 107
Churchill Downs · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#10
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-08-18 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 08/06/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 03/08/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 18/08/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 86% | -0.08 |
| 20/03/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 18% | -0.34 |
| 23/04/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 14/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 13/06/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |