1
Demolition Duke
6yo Horse · 8-10 · OR 106
Churchill Downs · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Ellis Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-05-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Keeneland | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength60%
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 14/02/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 15/03/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 04/04/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 07/05/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 56% | -0.13 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 64% | -0.28 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 16/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 03/09/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |