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4

Groveland

6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 101

Churchill Downs · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f

#3

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

14%

Place Prob

16%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength38%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC1 @ Remington Park 25/09/2023 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 95 · 1m1f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/09/2023 · OR 95 par25/09C1OR 95C6 @ Churchill Downs 23/11/2024 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 102 · 7f Fas 120 · below its mark23/11/2024 · OR 102 parC6 @ Turfway Park 26/01/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 103 · 1m Fas 120 · below its mark26/01/2025 · OR 103 par26/01C6OR 103C5 @ Turfway Park 16/02/2025 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 106 · 1m110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/02/2025 · OR 106 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 30/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 106 · 1m 122 · below its mark30/10/2025 · OR 106 par30/10C6OR 106C8 @ Churchill Downs 23/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 105 · 1m110y 121 · beat its mark23/11/2025 · OR 105 parC8 @ Churchill Downs 25/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 103 · 1m 118 · below its mark25/06/2026 · OR 103 par25/06C8OR 103C8 @ Ellis Park 18/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 98 · 1m Fas 122 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 98 parC0 @ Colonial Downs 22/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 1m1f Fas 12022/08C?projClass-projected finish: 4th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-22Colonial Downs?3rd3rd0
2026-07-18Ellis Park?1st3rd−2
2026-06-25Churchill Downs?2nd4th−2
2025-11-23Churchill Downs?1st3rd−2
2025-10-30Churchill Downs?6th6th0
2025-02-16Turfway Park?7th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/0916/0225/0622/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1160% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength45%

Delivery trend -1.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/09/20238th40/10%36%+0.36
23/11/20245th16/116%20%+0.04
26/01/20255th9/153%60%+0.07
16/02/20257th12/137%33%-0.04
30/10/20256th7/163%17%-0.46
23/11/20251st4/179%100%+0.21
25/06/20262nd7/282%86%+0.04
18/07/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
22/08/20263rd9/276%71%-0.05