Proven Advocate
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 107
Churchill Downs · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
34%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Lone Star | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Lone Star | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Lone Star | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Lone Star | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-21 | Sam Houston Race Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/01/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 24/01/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 22/02/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 21/03/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 25/04/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 55% | -0.24 |
| 09/05/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 03/09/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |