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6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 95

Churchill Downs · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f

#11

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 22/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 106 · 1m Gd 122 · below its mark22/10/2025 · OR 106 par22/10C6OR 106C8 @ Turfway Park 17/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 106 · 1m110y 120 · beat its mark17/01/2026 · OR 106 parC6 @ Turfway Park 07/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 101 · 1m 124 · below its mark07/02/2026 · OR 101 par7/02C6OR 101C6 @ Turfway Park 21/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 100 · 1m 125 · below its mark21/03/2026 · OR 100 parC8 @ Keeneland 19/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 105 · 1m1f 118 · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 105 par19/04C8OR 105C8 @ Churchill Downs 21/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 103 · 6f110y Gd 118 · below its mark21/05/2026 · OR 103 parC8 @ Churchill Downs 10/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 100 · 1m110y Fm 118 · below its mark10/06/2026 · OR 100 par10/06C8OR 100C6 @ Ellis Park 04/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 96 · 1m1f Fm 122 · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 96 parC6 @ Ellis Park 26/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 95 · 1m110y Fm 122 · below its mark26/07/2026 · OR 95 par26/07C6OR 95projClass-projected finish: 11th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-26Ellis Park?9th9th0
2026-07-04Ellis Park?8th8th0
2026-06-10Churchill Downs?6th8th−2
2026-05-21Churchill Downs?8th10th−2
2026-04-19Keeneland?4th6th−2
2026-03-21Turfway Park?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/1021/0310/0626/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 5-11 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength19%

Delivery trend +2.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/10/20252nd3/184%88%+0.03
17/01/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
07/02/20267th9/153%40%-0.13
21/03/20265th14/126%56%+0.29
19/04/20264th11/271%0%-0.71
21/05/20268th33/10%22%+0.22
10/06/20266th20/10%55%+0.55
04/07/20268th25/10%22%+0.22
26/07/20269th33/10%0%0.00