Warlander
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 93
Churchill Downs · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#6
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 5.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-05-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 91% | +0.09 |
| 23/11/2025 | 12th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 16/01/2026 | 10th | 6/1 | 68% | 10% | -0.58 |
| 13/02/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 29/03/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 22/04/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.18 |
| 24/05/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 10% | -0.16 |
| 21/06/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 45% | -0.28 |
| 06/09/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |