7
Winston
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 108
Churchill Downs · Race 10 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m 3f
#9
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-04-27 | San Isidro | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-04-04 | San Isidro | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength36%
Delivery trend -6.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 89% | +0.02 |
| 27/04/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 86% | -0.07 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 16/08/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |