2
Al Ghadeer
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 80
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
28%
Place Prob
29%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength17%
Delivery trend -13.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 11/04/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 82% | -0.02 |
| 22/05/2026 | 10th | 13/2 | 66% | 10% | -0.56 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 71% | -0.22 |