1
Skyforge
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 84
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
4/5
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 2-2 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength89%
Delivery trend +14.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 10/07/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |