4
Twinklee
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 86
Churchill Downs · Race 2 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
13%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-22 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength91%
Delivery trend +2.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/11/2025 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 22/01/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 28/02/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 14/03/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 30/04/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 29/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 75% | +0.59 |
| 10/07/2026 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 25% | -0.59 |