2
Sir Hansen
2yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 75
Churchill Downs · Race 3 - Allowance · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-07-19 | Ellis Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 7-7 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -66.0% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 09/09/2026 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 18% | -0.34 |