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4

Subjugation

2yo Colt · 8-7 · OR 79

Churchill Downs · Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 2.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Ellis Park 04/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 5f110y 1194/07C6C6 @ Saratoga 01/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 80 · 6f Fas 123 · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 80 par1/08C6OR 80C6 @ Saratoga 29/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 75 · 6f Fas 123 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 75 par29/08C6OR 75projClass-projected finish: 1st of 1
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Saratoga?2nd2nd0
2026-08-01Saratoga?4th4th0
2026-07-04Ellis Park?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/071/0829/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength78%

Delivery trend +8.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/07/20262nd9/488%86%-0.02
01/08/20264th11/486%50%-0.36
29/08/20262nd6/168%83%+0.15