Act Of Parliament

3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 79

Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 7f

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

94%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength44%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.6

Today:

Class gap: +0.9

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-18	Churchill Downs	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-08-26	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	3rd	1st	+2	8.8
2026-06-06	Churchill Downs	?	12th	10th	+2	1.0
2026-05-03	Churchill Downs	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▲

Strength55%

Delivery trend +4.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
03/05/2026	5th	10/1	47%	64%	+0.16
06/06/2026	12th	15/2	61%	0%	-0.61
26/08/2026	3rd	5/2	87%	60%	-0.27
18/09/2026	1st	7/2	82%	100%	+0.18