2
Equilibrium
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 86
Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 7f
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Ellis Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 8-8 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -44.2% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 21/06/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 64% | +0.00 |
| 21/08/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 14% | -0.49 |