Kid Twist

3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 90

Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 7f

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength40%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +0.7

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-11	Churchill Downs	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-07-11	Ellis Park	?	5th	4th	+1	6.2
2026-06-12	Churchill Downs	?	2nd	1st	+1	9.2
2026-05-23	Churchill Downs	?	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2026-04-26	Churchill Downs	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-04-08	Keeneland	?	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%

▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price

Trend▬

Strength83%

Delivery trend -1.9% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 8.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
13/11/2025	2nd	15/2	61%	80%	+0.19
18/12/2025	5th	9/1	53%	20%	-0.33
21/01/2026	2nd	5/2	87%	83%	-0.04
08/04/2026	3rd	33/1	0%	78%	+0.78
26/04/2026	2nd	9/2	76%	80%	+0.04
23/05/2026	3rd	7/1	63%	67%	+0.04
12/06/2026	2nd	16/1	16%	88%	+0.72
11/07/2026	5th	4/1	79%	20%	-0.59
11/09/2026	3rd	15/8	90%	82%	-0.08