Mcfasty
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 91
Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-06-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-02-05 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-27 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-11-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -7.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 27/09/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 91% | +0.25 |
| 19/10/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 20/11/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 27/12/2025 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 05/02/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 28/03/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 12/06/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 38% | -0.15 |
| 19/08/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |