Valiant Humor
4yo Colt · 8-9 · OR 90
Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-06-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2025-11-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-10-22 | Keeneland | ? | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2025-09-21 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 86% | -0.09 |
| 06/07/2025 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 23/08/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 21/09/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 22/10/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 08/11/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 03/06/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 23/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 11/09/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |