White Whale

4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 84

Churchill Downs · Race 5 - Claiming · 7f

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength28%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.2

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-11	Churchill Downs	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-07-19	Ellis Park	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-05-10	Churchill Downs	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-04-16	Keeneland	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-02-22	Fair Grounds	?	5th	4th	+1	6.2
2026-01-31	Fair Grounds	?	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength16%

Delivery trend -5.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
02/11/2025	4th	11/4	86%	67%	-0.19
30/11/2025	1st	13/2	66%	100%	+0.34
10/01/2026	4th	9/2	76%	40%	-0.36
31/01/2026	3rd	9/2	76%	60%	-0.16
22/02/2026	5th	11/2	71%	0%	-0.71
16/04/2026	3rd	7/2	82%	67%	-0.15
10/05/2026	6th	14/1	26%	17%	-0.10
19/07/2026	6th	5/2	87%	17%	-0.70
11/09/2026	7th	10/1	47%	14%	-0.33