4
Cromwell
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 91
Churchill Downs · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m 1f
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-28 | Saratoga | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-05-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-02-15 | Fair Grounds | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength69%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10/2024 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 78% | -0.06 |
| 21/12/2024 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 89% | +0.10 |
| 18/01/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 88% | -0.01 |
| 15/02/2025 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 63% | -0.30 |
| 03/05/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |
| 28/08/2025 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 18% | -0.19 |
| 07/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 2/5 | 98% | 86% | -0.12 |